blog Soler Finques

crisis Covid-19

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The real estate sector has entered a recession.

The price of assets will fall for fear of the sector's downturn and to a greater extent for the economic recession caused by the Covid-19 crisis. The magnitude of the recession will be determined by the duration of the state of alarm and confinement, which leads to a financial crisis of exponential magnitude.

This fight does not destroy our infrastructure, we can start producing in the minute after the end of the pandemic. The problem is that the ability of our customers to purchase our products is being destroyed at breakneck speed. And it is well known that what determines (perversely) the price of real estate is the purchasing power of buyers. The new price will be determined, as always, by the borrowing capacity of the buyers. A liquidity consumed by confinement, and a capacity of indebtedness diminished by the increase of the unemployment and potential collapse of the financial system.

It is impossible to predict prices without resorting to the hateful depends. It depends on how long the Covid-19 lasts.

In a futurology exercise we could prophesy that the price of housing will fall by about 5% for each month that the economy is confined, that the fall will be exponential, that is, that it will gain speed, and that it will find ground in outstanding debt. of mortgages in our country, as happened in the bubble crisis. But unlike that crisis, a more agile recovery is foreseeable ...

Without a vaccine to cure the pandemic, or tests to control it, post-confinement ventures like chaos. We'll see ... the economic and real estate crisis will gravitate between all these factors, and those we were already dragging.

Xavi Soler

Soler Finques

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